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Practical application of uncertainty analysis

From National Research Council Canada

DOIResolve DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-7788(00)00085-2
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FormatText, Article
SubjectBuilding simulation; Uncertainty analysis; Risk analysis; Sensitivity analysis
Abstract
Uncertainty analysis, based on Differential Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo Analysis, has been used in several research projects in order to estimate reliability of results, especially in empirical validation-based projects where both measured and predicted uncertainty bands need to be evaluated. However, such analyses have been time-consuming, involving either repetitive manual changing of the input parameters followed by a simulation run, or involving the writing of specific programs to automate the process. Their use has, in consequence, been restricted. This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in the predictions from thermal simulation programs. It then describes how uncertainty analysis has been incorporated into the thermal simulation program ESP-r. An example of its application is given.
Publication date
In
  • Energy and Buildings 33, no. 3 (February 2001): 219–227.
LanguageEnglish
Peer reviewedYes
NRC publication
This is a non-NRC publication

"Non-NRC publications" are publications authored by NRC employees prior to their employment by NRC.

NPARC number21274001
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Record identifier25456897-67fc-49c5-94eb-014807317d41
Record created2015-02-05
Record modified2020-03-27
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