| Abstract | The Canadian Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS) uses ice conditions and vessel class to provide guidance on safe navigation in ice. In this paper the AIRSS has been modified to take into account ice decay, ridging, floe size and icebreaker escort to calculate a Transit Numeral, an indicator of ice severity. Transit Numerals have been determined for a number of vessels operating in the Russian Arctic and in turn related to average vessel speed. The ice navigation data have been analysed to predict mean speed, standard deviation of speed and an upper limit average transit speed. These transit speeds provide an experience-based indication of expected long-term ship performance in actual practice along the Northern Sea Route. |
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