| Résumé | This paper describes the iceberg deterioration component of an iceberg forecasting model. The model is intended for operational use by the Canadian Ice Service, and locally by offshore operators. The paper describes the formulation used to account for the various deterioration mechanisms, which consist of melting due to solar radiation, buoyant convection, and forced convection, as well as wave erosion and calving. The work also includes a sensitivity study that examines the role of the environmental input variables and model parameters. Tests examine the influence of water temperature, wind and current velocities, iceberg size, and wave height. The results indicate that wave height plays a major role in iceberg deterioration. Wind velocity and water temperature also play significant roles. In contrast, water current had little influence on iceberg deterioration. Finally, predicted calving intervals are found to be in reasonable agreement with field observations. |
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